Asian Economies
Asia accounts for 52% of the world’s population and (as of 2016) 39% of the world’s GDP. By the end of the decade Asia will account for 42% of the world’s GDP. Asia takes almost three-quarters of Australia’s exports of goods and services and supplies more than half of Australia’s imports. You simply can’t understand Australia’s long-term economic prospects without a good understanding of what’s happening in the major Asian economies.
Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics | 16th April 2024China has been running a ‘crawling peg’ exchange rate regime, similar to the one Australia had between January 1976 and December 1983, since 2015. Strictly speaking, a quasi-fixed FX regime like this requires some kind of relationship between a country’s domestic money supply and its FX reserves – although that isn’t really ‘binding’ if the […]
Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 4th April 2024Is #China heading for some kind of financial or #currency crisis? In the short term, no. But over the medium- to longer-term, the possibility of a sharp fall in the value of the #renminbi against other currencies, accompanied by large falls in the values of other Chinese assets, can’t be ruled out. China hasn’t been […]
Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th March 2024Talk to a gathering of parliamentarians, business leaders and others from the UK and Australia, in Melbourne, on Wednesday 13th March 2024 PRODUCTIVITY, TAX REFORM & ‘PEAK CHINA’ TALK TO COOK SOCIETY, 13th MARCH 2024 by Saul Eslake Principal, Corinna Economic Advisory Download PDF version Productivity Productivity – what we get by way of […]
Insights on Asian Elections 2024 mentioned in The Economist
Asian Economies | 30th January 2024Saul Eslake: A couple of weeks ago I gave a presentation to colleagues in ICCBE previewing this year’s Asian elections (Taiwan, now done, Indonesia in just over two weeks, and India in April-May). I was delighted when The Economist’s Adam Roberts picked up some of my comments on India and posted them in his Sunday’s newsletter on 28th January 2024
Have we passed ‘peak China’?
Asian Economies | 23rd January 2024Saul Eslake’s presentation to colleagues in Independent Economics, which argues that China’s sluggish recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic isn’t just a ‘cylical’ thing, but rather reflects longer-term factors (as well as policy choices) which are likely to result in China’s economy growing by well under 5% per annum in the years ahead, and possibly under […]
Asian elections in 2024
Asian Economies | 10th January 2024A brief look at the candidates and issues in the elections coming up in Taiwan this week, in Indonesia next month, and in India in (most likely) April and May.
Monash University Indonesia and XSPI webinar
Asian Economies, The Australian Economy | 17th May 2022Saul’s presentation to a webinar hosted by Monash University Indonesia and XSPI on 17th May 2022 looking at lessons from the pandemic for Australia and Indonesia.
Indonesia as an investment destination
Asian Economies, Economic Video | 25th November 2021Saul’s presentation to a webinar on “Seizing Post-Pandemic Investment Opportunities in Indonesia” hosted by the Indonesia Investment Promotion Centre in Sydney on 24th November 2021. In this presentation Saul makes the case for Indonesia to be seen as an alternative for countries and companies wanting to reduce their dependence on China, with the IMF forecasting […]
